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Home > Time Management > An Example Scenario Using Program Evaluation And Review Technique (PERT)

An Example Scenario Using Program Evaluation And Review Technique (PERT)



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This post demonstrates how to use PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) to compute the weighted average duration, standard deviation, and the variance of each activity in a given project. It then calculates the average or expected project duration, which is the sum of the average activity times on the critical path. Finally knowing the average project duration and the variances of all activities, the probability (Z) of completing the project by a certain time is then calculated using standard statistical tables.

Consider the following information for a given project.

ID Description Predecessor(s) a opt m ml b pess 
Codify accountsNone161928
File articles of unificationNone303030
Unify price and credit policyNone607290
Unify personnel policiesNone182730
Unify data processing1172947
Train accounting staff14710
Pilot run data processing5121518
Calculate P & L and balance sheet6, 761224
Transfer real property2182730
10 Train salesforce3203550
11 Negotiate with unions44055100
12 Determine capital needs8112029
13 Explain personnel policies11142326
14 Secure line of credit9, 12131619
15 End10, 12, 14000

Let’s compute the weighted average time te and the variance  σ for each activity using the following formulas:

te = (a + 4m + b)/6

σ = (b – a)/6

ID

a opt

m ml

b pess

te

 σ σ2

1

16

19

28

20

2

4

2

30

30

30

30

0

0

3

60

72

90

73

5

25

4

18

27

30

26

2

4

5

17

29

47

30

5

25

6

4

7

10

7

1

1

7

12

15

18

15

1

1

8

6

12

24

13

3

9

9

18

27

30

26

2

4

10

20

35

50

35

5

25

11

40

55

100

60

10

100

12

11

20

29

20

3

9

13

14

23

26

22

2

4

14

13

16

19

16

1

1

15

0

0

0

0

0

0

 

Next, let’s compute the critical project duration. We first need to construct the project network diagram as shown below.

Untitled1

The available paths and their durations are:

  • Path 1,5,7,8,12,15 with duration: 20 + 30 + 15 + 13 + 20 + 0 = 98 days
  • Path 1,5,7,8,12,14,15 with duration: 20 + 30 + 15 + 13 + 20 + 16 + 0 = 114 days
  • Path 1,6,8,12,15 with duration: 20 + 7 + 13 + 20 + 0 = 60 days
  • Path 1,6,8,12,14,15 with duration: 20 + 7 + 13 + 20 + 16 + 0 = 76 days
  • Path 2,9,14,15 with duration: 30 + 26 + 16 + 0 = 72 days
  • Path 3,10,15 with duration: 73 + 35 + 0 = 108 days
  • Path 4,11,13 with duration: 26 + 60 + 22 = 108 days

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Ihab Sarieddine

Ihab Sarieddine is a senior IT software engineer and a project manager with over 8 years of professional experience in managing and delivering IT banking projects and services for organizations primarily in the Middle Eastern and Asian regions. He is a PMP certified and an ITIL Release, Control, and Validation (RCV) V3 practitioner, and have a Masters degree in IT management.
Categories: Time Management
  1. hiren
    April 8th, 2013 at 09:32 | #1

    Hi

    Please let me know from where you will get this (10.198) figure.

    From previous example i come to know that 7 is come from count of 7 activities, i might be wrong.

    Thanks
    hiren shah

    • Ihab Sarieddine
      April 10th, 2013 at 15:22 | #2

      Hiren, 10.198 is the radical of 104 which is the sum of the variances of the activities